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3/9- OSCAR TRIVIA:
The new trailer for Iron Man 2 can be seen here. This is probably the film I look forward to most over the summer, but that's not saying much really. The trailer looks awesome. But I am afraid it may have made the same mistake Spider-Man 3 made by including too many villians and events into one film that it just gets overcrowded and unfocused.
I have updated the precursor chart with this year's Oscar winners. See it on the sidebar. As it turns out, Christoph Waltz and Up in the animated film category ended up winning everything they were nominated for. By the way, I have a big announcement to make. I'll let you know what it is on Wednesday.
My thoughts on the race and results of how I did can be seen here or on the sidebar. Now to get some sleep. Got to get back to my REAL job in the morning. Good night! Winner Total The Hurt Locker: 6 Avatar: 3 Precious: 2 Crazy Heart: 2 Up: 2 The Blind Side: 1 Inglourious Basterds: 1 The Young Victoria: 1 Star Trek: 1 The Secret of her Eyes: 1 The Cove: 1 Logorama: 1 The New Tenants: 1 Music By Prudence: 1
Picture: The Hurt Locker Director: Kathryn Bigelow Actor: Jeff Bridges!!! Actress: Sandra Bullock! Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique Original: The Hurt Locker Adapted: Precious!!! Cinematography: Avatar Art Direction: Avatar Editing: The Hurt Locker Costumes: The Young Victoria Makeup: Star Trek Visual Effects: Avatar Sound: The Hurt Locker Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker Score: Up Song: Crazy Heart Animated: Up Foreign: The Secret of Her Eyes Documentary: The Cove Animated Short: Logorama! Live Short: The New Tenants Documentary Short: Music by Prudence
So the event that readers of this site wait for all year is finally here. I'll be watching from the comfort of my apartment after making pesto pasta frittata for my roommates and myself. I'll also be posting the winners live in case you can't watch it yourself. And I'll post my thoughts and analysis of the race within a couple hours after the show is over. Well I'm looking forward to what I can only hope will be an enjoyable show. Enjoy the evening, my fans! Top 10 Things I Hope to See at the Oscars 10. Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep settle their season-long race with a pistol duel followed by another full-tongue kiss. 9. James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow settle their season-long race with a pistol duel followed by another divorce just for spite. 8. Whoever wins best original song, because they weren't given the opportunity to perform it during the ceremony this year, they use their entire acceptance speech to perform it, in one of the many "Screw you, Oscar producers!" moments of the night. 7. Transformers wins sound mixing, not only so that Greg Russell can get his long overdue Oscar, but so that Sandra Bullock won't be the only film or person to win an Oscar and a Razzie in the same weekend. 6. The Acadmey president comes to the mic and admits that expanding the best picture category to 10 nominees was a terrible idea, even worse than moving the honorary Oscar segment to a whole different ceremony. 5. In another "Screw you, Oscar porducers!" moments, Sacha Baron Cohen appears on another network performing his "Avatar James Cameron love-child" comedy routine that got cut from the Oscars, and his ratings are even higher than those of the show. 4. Jeff Bridges wins an Oscar, but not for Crazy Heart, because the Academy wanted to thank him for making their lives a lot groovier by learning from the teachings of The Dude. 3. Channeling their inner-Basterds, before burning down the theater, the show's producers screen a taunting film to the audience declaring their days of moral blackholeing film goers are over. (I know this was already done at the Critics Choice Awards, but I seriously thought of it first) 2. In an appropriate event of irony, co-host Alec Baldwin is interrupted in the middle of the ceremony by a profanity-laced tirade by his own father on his cell phone. 1. Inglourious Basterds wins best picture proving that there can be a happy medium found between the long dramatic well-acted war films the Academy loves and the smart but violent box-office champs that the audience loves.
I have completed all of my analysis and have posted my predictions for this year's Academy Awards on the respective category pages. Some general thoughts are below. As I always promise, I haven't just picked the consensus. This year I made a few slightly bold predictions and one big bold one: Inglourious Basterds for picture. I'll probably be wrong, but if I'm right then I'll be able to once again say "I told you so" to the Oscar community. I haven't been able to do that in two years. My main reason is because the voting system for picture is different this year, and therefore we really have no idea what's going to happen. Even if the system causes A Serious Man to somehow win, it woulnd't surprise me that much. But with this irregular system, I can't vote for the expected winner. So I'm just going with my gut. Read more about my logic on the picture page. The most difficult races to call for me this year were: picture, original screenplay, cinematography, and sound mixing. This is because all of these races came down to two or three of the best picture frontrunners. Since best picture is probably down to Locker, Basterds and Avatar, we should be able to tell who won about half-way through the ceremony. Between the categories of original screenplay, cinematography, editing, sound mixing and sound editing, whoever wins the most will probably win best picture. It's a pretty clear consensus that Kathryn Bigelow will win director, no matter what happens to Hurt Locker in the picture race. Therefore, we will most certainly break the glass ceiling by finally awarding a female director. Looks like upon his fifth nomination, Jeff Bridges will finally win an Oscar, 38 years after his first nomination. That's not a record in span but it's close. Lead actress is the only acting category that still seems up in the air. Bullock is the projected winner, but I could just as easily see Meryl Streep win. Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress are probably the easiest categories of the night to call. Giving Jason Reitman a screenplay Oscar will be his compensation for not winning director. They did the same thing for Alexander Payne for Sideways or Sofia Coppola for Lost in Translation. You might also say the same thing about Quentin Tarantino this year. It's unlikely that sound mixing and sound editing will go to different films. But I'm still predicting it that way since I can't see Hurt Locker winning sound editing nor can I see Avatar winning sound mixing. People I'm eager to see win their first Oscar: Kathryn Bigelow, Jeff Bridges, Sandra Bullock, Jason Reitman, Michael Giacchino, Pete Docter. Categories Where I'm Predicting Against the Consensus Picture: Inglourious Basterds over Hurt Locker and Avatar Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds over Hurt Locker Cinematography: Avatar over Hurt Locker Sound Mixing: Hurt Locker over Avatar Live Action Short: Kavi over The Door Documentary Short: China's Unnatural Disaster over The Last Truck Predicted Winner Total Avatar: 4 Inglourious Basterds: 3 The Hurt Locker: 3 Crazy Heart: 2 Up: 2 The Blind Side: 1 Precious: 1 Up in the Air: 1 The Young Victoria: 1 Star Trek: 1 The Secret of her Eyes: 1 The Cove: 1 Wallace and Gromit in...: 1 Kavi: 1 China's Unnatural Disaster: 1
I have begun making my final Oscar predictions. Obviously, I'm doing the easier categories first. I hope to have them all done on Friday. The categories that I have completed are below. Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Editing, Costumes, Makeup, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Score, Song, Animated Film, Documentary, Foreign-Language Film, Animated Short, Live Action Short, Documentary Short
Can Avatar beat decades of narrow-minded voters? Note: I know this is the second time I've posted this article, but I think it bears repeating right about now. As we draw closer and closer to this year's Oscars, fans and bloggers alike are becoming increasingly convinced that Avatar will be the one to beat for best picture this year. Sure the film will soon surpass Titanic as the highest grossing film ever, and it has millions of fans worldwide. But as much as I loved the film myself, I must remain skeptical. The Academy has never given best picture to a sci-fi film before, and I remain doubtful that this is the film to break that barrier. Of course, what type of film is needed to break that type of barrier? Nearly every year the Academy has given the best picture award to a drama or dramady set in the present or past in the real world. Fantasies, sci-fis, real comedies, and superhero films are just a few types that the Academy scarcely recognizes. Let's examine a history of films that have tried to break down the best picture bias. In many ways Avatar is this decade's Star Wars. In 1977, George Lucas released Star Wars upon the world and it shot to instant fame like no film before or after it. It made hundreds of millions in its months of running. It inspired product lines, sequels, conventions, and forever changed the way films are made due to its breakthrough visual and sound technologies. Few films could be considered as revolutionary as Star Wars was. It was no surprise that this massive hit was Oscar nominated for best picture in '78. But it was a shock to many that it lost the award to Woody Allen's film Annie Hall. How could a film that impacted the way films were made for decades to come, be beaten by a simple but well-written and acted film. Sure Annie Hall was a good film, but does it really deserve the term best picture? Shouldn't best picture go to a film of certain importance? Shouldn't it go to a film that changes the way all other films are made? Apparently not because in the '70s the Academy was still fixated on awarding the same type of real-world dramas or dramadies every year. Star Wars failed to break the barrier. History repeated itself in 1982 when Steven Spielberg introduced us to E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial, the tiny wide-faced alien that the world fell in love with. This love was enough to gross the film nearly $400 million making it the biggest film ever. And it seems as though it came closer to satisfying the Academy's criteria of being a real-world drama, if it weren't for that tiny detail that E.T. is from outer space. If the film were rewritten so that E.T. were say, an illegal immigrant from Slovenia, perhaps the Academy would have given the best picture award to the film instead of the grand-scale epic Gandhi. Sure Gandhi was as big-scale as Lawrence of Arabia and told the tale of one of the most important people in history. But it did not capture the hearts and souls of audiences the same way that E.T. did. Once again, the Academy chose tradition over heart. Now let's look at a time when a best picture barrier was broken. I am referring of course to The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. In 2003, this fantasy film by Peter Jackson not only won best picture and director, but nine other awards making it a perfect sweep and tying Titanic and Ben-Hur as the all time biggest Oscar winner. Meanwhile, the Clint Eastwood murder drama Mystic River, the film that more clearly has Oscar written all over it, picks up a mere two acting trophies in its haul. So what caused the Academy to suddenly change from its narrow-minded focus to accepting fantasy films as genuine filmmaking? I believe the answer to be: baby-steps. Before Return of the King, there was The Fellowship of the Ring and The Two Towers, both of which were nominated for best picture and both of which lost just like Star Wars and E.T. before them. But therefore, by the third film, there was more a sense that this film had EARNED its Oscar through the two previous films' nominations. I believe had there been no Fellowship or Two Towers, then Return of the King would have lost to Mystic River. So you could say that Lord of the Rings broke down a best picture barrier for fantasy films, but they had to try three years in a row in order to do it. This brings me to the most recent, and therefore I believe the most relevant example for comparison: The Dark Knight. In 2008, Christopher Nolan's interpretation of the comic book hero soared to $530 million, second only to Titanic. In terms of ticket sales, I'd say Avatar has made about as much as Dark Knight when you factor in price inflation, and the extra cost for the 3D glasses. Throughout '08, people were talking about how Dark Knight was going to be the first superhero film to be Oscar nominated for best picture, as well as director and screenplay. It was after all widely accepted that it was the best superhero film ever, unlikely to ever be surpassed. Alas, on that cold January morning, people which may have included myself broke into tears upon finding out that the film did not get any nominations for picture, director or screenplay. And we were kicked while on the ground upon hearing that those vacancies went to The Reader, a clearly Oscar-baiting film that nobody in the mainstream really liked. This was more proof than ever before that the Academy refuses to recognize mainstream but alternative forms of filmmaking and will only accept their traditionalist styles. This broke my heart, and my refusal to accept Avatar as a serious best picture threat is because I don't want to be hurt again. Though come Tuesday morning, I'm sure we'll see Avatar among the best picture nominees, and probably James Cameron among the directors. Though I wouldn't be so sure it would make the picture list were they still limited to five nominees. I just find it hard to believe that Avatar could win best picture when The Dark Knight, which I consider to be a superior film, couldn't even get nominated. Let's compare the two for a second. What's the reason for Avatar's success? I would say stunning visuals that aid exciting action sequences. That makes it an excellent action film, and like Star Wars it will influence the way films are made for decades. But I wouldn't necessarily call it best picture simply because of its cliched and obvious storyline. That is at least I wouldn't call it best picture if running against The Dark Knight, since that film was also an excellent action film, but also had a brilliantly written screenplay full of surprises, twists, intense dialogue, moral dilemmas, and most importantly of all: ethos. After seeing Dark Knight, I spent weeks thinking about many of the films implications such as giving into terrorism, mob mentality and giving people faith. Can anybody say that Avatar really made them think? After the movie was over, I spent little more than five minutes thinking about its implications. So even though I thoroughly enjoyed both films, because of its thought-provoking story and subtext I would easily call The Dark Knight more deserving of a best picture title over Avatar. And it is for that reason I doubt Avatar can accomplish what Dark Knight failed to come close to doing. Jaws, Towering Inferno, Beauty and the Beast, the list is endless with films that were among the best in their genre, managed to get best picture nominated, but failed to win due to their lack of satisfying the Academy's need for real-world dramas. Do I think a sci-fi film will one day win best picture? Absolutely, but it will take a different body of the Academy than the one they have now. Though I loved Avatar, and would more or less support a best picture win for it, I just can't flat out see it happening. And I say this so that those predicting an Avatar win as well as picture nominations for Star Trek and The Hangover might take a second look at history and reconsider.
I have begun making my final Oscar predictions. Obviously, I'm doing the easier categories first. I hope to have them all done on Friday. The categories that I have completed are below. Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction, Editing, Costumes, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Score, Song, Animated Film, Documentary, Animated Short
The 6th Annual Breach Awards
I have begun making my final Oscar predictions. Obviously, I'm doing the easier categories first. I hope to have them all done on Friday. The categories that I have completed are below. Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction, Costumes, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Score, Song, Animated Film
Today is the day that all Oscar ballots are due. Specifically, they need to be returned to PricewaterhouseCoopers by 5 pm this afternoon PT. This means that nothing that happens after today can affect who wins Oscars. If one of the nominees is charged with murder tomorrow, they can still win on Sunday. It's odd, but it's how it works.
I have begun making my final Oscar predictions. Obviously, I'm doing the easier categories first. I hope to have them all done on Friday. The categories that I have completed are below. Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Visual Effects, Animated Film
The International Film Music Critics Association (IFMCA, pretty much the closest thing we have to a guild award for the musical score category) Award winners were announced today. See the full list here. Michael Giacchino won best overall score for Up. He has practically swept the precursors for that film, so I think it's a pretty safe bet that he'll win the Oscar for score now. And with that, I believe we have every award winner declared for every award there is this season except for the Oscars. The precursor chart is as complete as it will be until the Oscar winners are declared.
Visual Effects: Avatar Supporting Effects: Sherlock Holmes Animation Effects: Up Animation: Up Animation Animated Character: Up Created Environment: Avatar (Biolume) Matte Painting: Avatar Compositing: District 9 Models and Miniatures: Avatar Animated Character: Avatar Single Effect: Avatar (Neytiri Drinking water) The Visual Effects Society (VES) Awards were on Sundday. The winners are above. I correctly predicted 8/11 of the categories. However, in two of my misses, I predicted the right film but the wrong effect. Anyway, Avatar is the clear winner, a surprise to nobody. As if we needed any more reason to predict it to win the Oscar for visual effects, here it is. By the way, the precursor chart is completely up to date with all guild winners.
The 6th Annual Breach Awards Click on the above link or on the sidebar to read my awards for the best and worst of film in 2009. Inglourious Basterds ended up being the big winner with 8 positive category wins. Terminator Salvation is the big loser with 3 negative category wins. So now that that's out of the way, I can finally start working on my final Oscar predictions. I'll be making them throughout this week, obviously doing the easiest categories first. I hope to have them all done Friday.
At the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Awards, The Hurt Locker took away the top film prize. I predicted that right. This puts it in a strong position to win the sound mixing Oscar, but I'm still leaning towards Avatar. I think anybody reading this site will realize that Hurt Locker had good sound mixing, but not nearly as good as Avatar. And in my opinion, the Oscars tend to get this category right more often than the CAS does, oddly. So I'm thinking they'll make the right decision and award Avatar (even though rewarding Transformers would be an even better decision).
At the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Awards, The White Ribbon took away the top film prize. This is a surprise to many including myself. I thought it was at least fourth in line. Well this completely messes with my Oscar prediction for cinematogarphy. White Ribbon, Avatar, Hurt Locker and Basterds all have a strong case for winning it. But I'll have to make a decision later this week.
Tuesday 3/2 All Oscar ballots are due Sunday 3/7 The Oscars!
Visual Effects: Avatar, alt: District 9 Supporting Effects: Sherlock Holmes, alt: Angels and Demons Animation Effects: Up, alt: Coraline Animation: Up, alt: Coraline Animation Animated Character: Up, alt: Monsters vs. Aliens Created Environment: Avatar (Floating Mountains), alt: 2012 Matte Painting: Avatar, alt: Star Trek Compositing: Avatar (end battle), alt: District 9 Models and Miniatures: Avatar, alt: Terminator Salvation Animated Character: Avatar, alt: District 9 Single Effect: Avatar (Quaritch's Escape), alt: 2012 The Visual Effects Society (VES) Awards are on Sundday. My predictions are above. Is it me or does the VES add more categories every year? Well I'm essentially predicting Avatar to sweep everything it was nominated for. Even if it loses one or two of these categories, it's still sure to win the visual effects Oscar.
Best Editing: Avatar
-Awards Breach
Period: The Young Victoria Contemporary: Crazy Heart Fantasy: The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus The Costume Designers Guild (CDG) Awards were last night. The winners are above. I correctly predicted 2/3 with the third being my alternate prediction. It must be a weak year for contemporary costumes when Crazy Heart is the winner. Anyway, looks like Young Victoria is the frontrunner for the Oscar since it has won every major precursor for the costumes category. If one film upsets, I can't say what it would be. Dr. Parnassus, Nine, Coco Before Chanel and Bright Star all have about an equal shot at upsetting.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker Alternate: Avatar The Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Awards are on Saturday. My prediction is above. Sound mixing is a rare category where I think Oscar voters tend to get it right more often than the guild voters. Too often does the CAS go for the best picture frontrunner or the musical in the face of really complicated action sound mixing. That is why I'm thinking Hurt Locker will beat Avatar, but the same may not happen at the Oscars. Of course, if they really want to do this right, they'll give the award to Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and the super-overdue Greg Russell.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker Alternate: Avatar The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Awards are on Saturday. My prediction is above. I'll go with Hurt Locker since it does feel like the frontrunner for cinematography, not to mention being the best picture frontrunner. But I could easily see a possible upset by either Avatar or Inglourious Basterds.
Best Picture: Inglourious Basterds
-Awards Breach
Period: The Young Victoria, alt: Nine Contemporary: Bruno, alt: Crazy Heart Fantasy: The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, alt: Star Trek The Costume Designers Guild (CDG) Awards are on Thursday. My predictions are above. Young Victoria will likely win period and go on to win the Oscar but I can see a possible upset by Nine or Coco Before Chanel. Dr. Parnassus is a safe bet for fantasy since it's the only nominee to go on to get an Oscar nomination. And I feel really dirty for predicting Bruno, but my thought is that if they are willing to nominate it, then they're willing to give it the win. Plus the other contemporary nominees look pretty weak.
The 6th Annual Breach Awards
Best Actress: Meryl Streep
-Awards Breach
Brief Review: The Last Station Hopefully the last dull period piece that I'll have to see this year as a result of my obligation to this site seems like an attempt to turn Dangerous Liaisons into a historic story.
Though I'm grateful I learned a bit about an intriguing historical character, I was bored to death by endless dramatic diatribes that result in nothing and a conclusion that feels meaningless. But I suppose it deserved its two nominations, one for the actual acting and the other because it was about darn time. Stars: 1.5 (out of 4) Oscar Nominations: Actress Helen Mirren, Supporting Actor Christopher Plummer
Picture: The Hurt Locker Director: Kathryn Bigelow Actor: Colin Firth Actress: Carey Mulligan Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air Animated Film: Up Foreign Film: The Prophet Cinematography: The Hurt Locker Art Direction: Avatar Editing: The Hurt Locker Costumes: The Young Victoria Makeup: The Young Victoria Visual Effects: Avatar Sound: The Hurt Locker Score: Up The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards were today. The winners are above. I correctly predicted 12/18 of the awards, with the other 6 being my alternate prediction. Not too shabby. Hurt Locker is the big winner for taking six awards including picture and director. As if we needed any more reason to predict Hurt Locker to win the best picture Oscar, now we have it. A couple of shocks in the lead acting categories with wins for Colin Firth and Carey Mulligan, one of which I predicted. But I don't think either has too much of a shot at the Oscars since Brits tend to vote for Brits. However, the fact that Meryl Streep failed to win leading actress means that she doesn't have enough support anywhere. Consequently, I'll probably start predicting Sandra Bullock to win leading actress now. And now Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique have officially swept the major precursors. I'll update the precursor chart as soon as I can get it working for edits again.
Effects: Avatar Dialogue: Inglourious Basterds Music: Avatar Foregin: District 9 Musical: This is It Animated: Up The Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) Awards were last night. I correctly predicted 4/6 of the categories. Avatar is the big winner since it won two awards including the all important sound effects prize. And since Hurt Locker won nothing, it's a pretty safe bet that Avatar will win the Oscar for sound editing.
As expected, the Writers Guild Awards went to The Hurt Locker for original and Up in the Air for adapted. The Cove also won for documentary, even though I don't fully understand how a documentary can have a screenplay. So Up in the Air is an even safer bet for adapted screenplay at the Oscars, but original is the race that really is still "up in the air." Remember, Inglourious Basterds was ineligible for the WGA so there's no telling if Hurt Locker still would have won had Basterds been nominated. The BAFTA awards tomorrow might help determine an ultimate victor in that race.
Thursday 2/25 Costume Designers Guild (CDG) Awards Saturday 2/27 American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Awards Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Awards Sunday 2/28 Visual Effects Society (VES) Awards
Picture: The Hurt Locker, alt: An Education Director: Kathryn Bigelow, alt: James Cameron Actor: Colin Firth, alt: Jeff Bridges Actress: Meryl Streep, alt: Carey Mulligan Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, alt: Alfred Molina Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, alt: Anna Kendrick Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds, alt: The Hurt Locker Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air, alt: An Education Animated Film: Up, alt: Fantastic Mr. Fox Foreign Film: The White Ribbon, alt: The Prophet Cinematography: The Hurt Locker, alt: Inglourious Basterds Art Direction: Avatar, alt: Inglourious Basterds Editing: Avatar, alt: The Hurt Locker Costumes: The Young Victoria, alt: An Education Makeup: The Young Victoria, alt: Nine Visual Effects: Avatar, alt: District 9 Sound: Avatar, alt: The Hurt Locker Score: Avatar, alt: Up The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards are on Sunday. My predictions are above. The ceremony will be broadcast on the BBC at 8:00 pm ET in the US. I won't exactly be able to be posting winners live since the ceremony will have already occured, due to the time zone switch. But I'll post the winners as soon as I hear them. These are becoming an increasingly important awards show since they have occasionally been the only ones to forsee certain Oscar wins (ie Marion Cotillard). One race I consider to be important here is actress. If Meryl Streep loses to Carey Mulligan, than the Oscar will go to Sandra Bullock. But if Streep wins, it will remain a two-way race between Streep and Bullock. Also, the BAFTAs tend to favor British material a little heavier. That is why I am predicting Colin Firth for actor, and possibly An Education to get some unexpected wins. The rest I'm just predicting with my gut. Who knows?
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
-Awards Breach
Effects: Avatar, alt: Star Trek Dialogue: Avatar, alt: The Hurt Locker Music: Avatar, alt: Star Trek Foregin: District 9, alt: Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince Musical: Nine, alt: Crazy Heart Animated: Up, alt: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs The Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) Awards are on Saturday. My predictions are above. I see Avatar winning everything it's nominated for. Star Trek and Hurt Locker also have a chance since they're big contenders in the sound editing Oscar category. Other than that, I'm just going with my instincts.
The winners of the London Film Critics Awards can be seen here. Note I'm having some technical difficulties with the precursor chart and haven't been able to update it in a few days. I'll put these on the precursor chart as soon as it's fixed.
Original: The Hurt Locker, alt: A Serious Man Adapted: Up in the Air, alt: Precious The Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards are on Saturday. My predictions are above. I think the races are pretty easy to call, most notably because due to certain technical ineligibilities, only two WGA nominees from each category ended up getting Oscar nominated for screenplay. So naturally, those two are the frontrunners in each category. With Inglourious Basterds not nominated, original should be pretty easy for Hurt Locker to get. The only alternative would be a film that is a little more dependent on its dialogue, like Serious Man. And adapted should easily go to Up in the Air which has been winning practically every screenplay award this year. The only exception is Precious which outperformed Up in the Air at the Oscars slightly.
Brief Review: In the Loop I see why this surprising British comedy import received it's surprise nomination for adapted screenplay. Because it's full of witty dialogue wrapped around a clever political satire.
The best part of the film is that it's just pretty darn funny. Every line of dilogue is a clever punchline. These are delivered best by Tom Hollander playing the impish stuttering newcomer Secretary of State for International Development, and by Peter Capaldi playing the British Director of Communications who orders every person under and not under his control through insults and movie references that make the vocal violence of Tom Cruise in Tropic Thunder feel like love poetry. (Fun fact: Peter Capaldi is already an Oscar winner for directing the '93 short film Franz Kafka's It's a Wonderful Life.) If you can understand the thick accents, you'll enjoy the clever bickering going on in In the Loop. You may find it a little short and details unclear but it's an enjoyable satire nonetheless. Stars: 3 (out of 4) Oscar Nominations: Adapted Screenplay
Best Sound Mixing: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
-Awards Breach
So today was the day the Academy hosts an annual luncheon for the Oscar nominees. You can see photos of the event here. A fun game is to always look through the group photo and see how many people in it you can name based on face (without any assistance). I can only identify 20, not my best year.
Drama: The Hurt Locker Comedy/Musical: The Hangover Animated: Up Documentary: The Cove The Association of Cinematic Editors (ACE) Awards were on sunday. The winners are above. So I only correctly predicted Up. Oh well. But the fact that Hurt Locker beat Avatar further cements its frontrunner status in the best picture race. If Avatar had any shot at best picture, it would have at least won this award.
Monday 2/15 Oscar Nominee Luncheon Saturday 2/20 Oscar Sci/Tech Ceremony Writers Guild Awards (WGA) Motion Picture Sound Editor (MPSE) Awards Sunday 2/21 British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards
Period: Sherlock Holmes Contemporary: The Hurt Locker Fantasy: Avatar The Art Directors Guild (ADG) awards were last night and these are the winners. I correctly predicted two out of three, with my alternate being correct on the third. I'm still a little surprised Hurt Locker managed to win since most of its sets were real locations. Anyway, I think the Oscar for art direction is safely going to Avatar, but if there's a chance at an upset, it might be Sherlock Holmes.
Drama: Avatar, alt: The Hurt Locker Comedy/Musical: 500 Days of Summer, alt: A Serious Man Animated: Up, alt: Fantastic Mr. Fox The Association of Cinematic Editors (ACE) Awards are on Sunday. My predictions are above. Drama is a tough call. It will most certainly go to either Avatar or Locker since they are both best picture frontrunners with heavy action. In the end, I'll go with Avatar since the guild has shown a preference for more dynamic films before (Bourne Ultimatum). The winner of the drama ACE will most likely go on to win the Oscar as well, since the two have matched for six straight years. This might also give one of the two films a leg up in the best picture race. As for comedy/musical, they often go for the musical so I'll go with 500 Days since it's the closest thing to a musical here. And for animated, I'll go with the Pixar film, natrually.
Best Cinematography: Inglourious Basterds
-Awards Breach
Period: Sherlock Holmes, alt: Inglourious Basterds Contemporary: The Lovely Bones, alt: The Hurt Locker Fantasy: Avatar, alt: District 9 The Art Directors Guild (ADG) Awards are on Saturday. My predictions are above. It's hard to predict since oddly, only two of the fifteen ADG nominations went on to get Oscar nominations. Consequently, I'm predicting those two films (Avatar and Sherlock Holmes) to pick up wins here. Their alternates are films that should have been Oscar nominated for art direction (Basterds and District 9). Contempoarary is tricky since none of its nominees got Oscar noms. I'll go with Lovely Bones since it has picked up several other art direction precursors, then Locker being a best picture frontrunner.
Review: The Blind Side The last best picture nominee that I had yet to see this year may not have the artistry, innovation or technology of some of the other nominees, but it makes me glad to see that when there are ten nominees, the Academy decided to nominate a film that's just a really well-told story.
Of course, inspirational real life-based athletic stories come and go at the cinema all the time, most of which I don't catch due to poor reviews or box-office or something. So I can't say what makes Blind Side stand out above the rest of them, but I can say what makes it stand above most movies in general. I can't put it any simpler than the fact that this is just a "really satisfying story." I believe this is the same quality that made Slumdog Millionaire an Oscar favorite last year, simply because the film is satisfying and uplifts the spirit. In Blind Side you get this satisfaction from seeing ordinary people doing a very kind and generous thing for somebody underprivileged and seeing it pay off big time. And the satisfaction doubles for knowing that it really happened. And unlike most real stories turned movies that are in the Oscar running, I'm not hearing any controversy about historical innacuracy. Thus it's great knowing the film is true and accurate, and still makes for a great story (two attributes that don't often go together). Quinton Aaron does a fine job as the quiet and reserved Oher, and Tim McGraw gives a finer performance than most musicians turned actors as Leigh Anne's husband Sean. But the star is Sandra Bullock for giving what might be her best performance to date. You can see the actress completely immersing herself in the role as the Southern commanding demanding do-good mother figure. It's not the best female performance of the year, but she deserved the nomination nonetheless. So assuming you're one of the few people who has not yet seen this film, I would wager on you enjoying it. It's not flashy or clever or stunning. It's just satisfying. I can't think of a better word. Stars: 3.5 (out of 4) Oscar Nominations: Picture, Actress Sandra Bullock
So today the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will send out ballots to its 6000 members asking them to choose their favorite films, performances and crafts of the year. It is from this moment on that everything counts. So nominees: don't do anything stupid for the next 20 days.
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