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2/8- Weekly Calendar
Up won the Annie Award for best animated film of the year, as well as best director in an animated film. Other awards at the show went to Fantastic Mr. Fox, Coraline and Princess and the Frog. So Up is still the frontrunner in the animated film category, but I wouldn't say it's a done deal yet.
As if it needed any more guarantees that it would win the Oscar for adapted screenplay, Up in the Air just won the USC Scripter Award for best adapted screenplay. Unless there's a big upset at the WGA Awards, we have our Oscar winner for adapted screenplay.
Best Animated Film: Up, alternate: Fantastic Mr. Fox So the Annie Awards are tomorrow night, recognizing achievements in animated film and television. I'll predict the obvious and go with Up for best animated feature. But the Annies can be unpredictable. Last year, Kung Fu Panda beat Wall-E in nearly every category. If one film upsets this year I think it might be Fantastic Mr. Fox, or possibly The Princess and the Frog.
I have updated all categories with the nominees and have made winner predictions. Enjoy!
The 6th Annual Breach Awards!
First of all, my apologies for not being able to post the nominees live as they come in this year. It's just that I finally have a real job and my work must come first. But of course when I got to work and was able to look up the nominees online, I was surprised, and overall relieved. First of all, regarding the best picture race, I'm sure the Academy CEOs are clinking wine glasses with each other right now after seeing that their idea of increasing the best picture lineup to ten films in order to nominate more mainstream and alternative types of film actually worked. With two sci-fi films Avatar and District 9, as well as an animated film Up, the Academy can now make the claim that they aren't out of touch with America and can expect better ratings at this year's telecast. However, I remain skeptical that this move will work in future years. What if 2010 doesn't feature several really strong alternative films like Avatar and District 9? Then they'll have to nominate ten boring Academy type films again. So just because it worked this year, doesn't mean it will work next year. And as I predicted, the expansion resulted in a couple of films that were good but not Oscar good getting nominated for best picture like An Education and A Serious Man. I guess you've got to take the good with the bad. As for The Blind Side stealing the best picture nomination away from Invictus is probably the biggest surprise of the morning. Though I felt some weakness for Invictus, I don't think anybody saw it going to a film that gave no signs it was even in the best picture race. Though I have yet to see Blind Side, I'm guessing that its financial success makes it a more deserving film than Invictus. And I just realized that even though The Lovely Bones bombed, Peter Jackson still got a nomination this year since he was executive producer for District 9. Good for Pete. Moving on, the director, actor, actress and supporting actor categories went down pretty much how everybody was expecting without surprise. Consequently I'm a little disappointed that none of my bold moves like Emily Blunt or Christian McKay came true. But then supporting actress threw a couple of curve balls. First I'm surprised Penelope Cruz was still nominated after Nine seemed dead for attention in any non-tech category. And then there was Maggie Gyllenhaal, one of the brightest moments of the nominations for me. Having earned absolutely no precursor attention, it seemed as though Gyllenhaal was doomed to be snubbed by Oscar yet again after so many worthy performances before (Secretary, Sherrybaby, World Trade Center, etc). And Crazy Heart was her best performance yet so I was exceedingly happy to see her make the list. What also pleases me is finally seeing Christopher Plummer get his first Oscar nomination at 80 years old, after such a long and deserving career. Now we just need nominations for Donald Sutherland and Christopher Lee and all will be as it should be. Other people I'm really happy to see finally get their first nomination include: Ivan Reitman, Colin Firth, Sandra Bullock, Stanley Tucci, and Vera Farmiga. Screenplays had a couple of surprises like The Messenger and In the Loop. I'm a bit disappointed 500 Days of Summer got the snub. But the tech categories threw plenty of surprises. There was more love than expected for The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus and less for Inglourious Basterds in the art direction and costumes areas. But then, Basterds got its due in the sound mixing and sound editing categories, even if it beat District 9 to them. And even though District 9 did well overall, it managed to lose nominations for art direction and makeup as well. Guess the Academy didn't like it as much as the guilds did. And I'm personally happy to see the Academy didn't completely overlook Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen when it deserved some recognition for its sound work. And what's interesting is seeing Precious beat Up in the Air for an editing nomination, which leads me to believe Precious has the upperhand at winning best picture. And what else is interesting is to see each of the Harry Potter movies score a nomination in what seems like a different category each time. Between four of the films, the series has now scored nominations for cinematography, art direction, costumes, visual effects and score, having yet to win any Oscar. Maybe the last Potter film will finally win something. So overall, I correctly predicted 86 out of 121 nominees or 71.2%. That's a little better than my last two years. But only a few of my bold out of the consensus predictions came true. I'll try to make up for it next month with my winner predictions. At least I think I'm getting better at taking personal bias out of the equation. I'll start making my winner predictions throughout the week. I have already updated the precursor chart and my personal picks with the nominees. Biggest Surprise Inclusions The Blind Side for Picture Maggie Gyllenhaal for Supporting Actress (but I'm very happy with that one) The Messenger for Original Screenplay In the Loop for Adapted Screenplay Harry Potter for Cinematography Dr. Parnassus for Art Direction and Costumes Precious for Editing Inglourious Basterds for Sound Mixing and Sound Editing The Hurt Locker for Score (did it even have a score, and was it eligible?) Paris 36 for Song (whatever that film is) The Secret of Kells for Animated Film Biggest Snubs Invictus for Picture Emily Blunt for Actress Julianne Moore for Supporting Actress 500 Days of Summer for Adapted Screenplay Inglourious Basterds for Art Direction and Costumes Up in the Air for Editing District 9 for Makeup, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing Transformers for Visual Effects and Sound Editing The Informant for Score Partly Cloudy for Animated Short Unlikely Things I Got Right Fantastic Mr. Fox for Score Princess and the Frog gets nominated twice for Song Avatar snubbed for Song Broken Records/Trends -The Blind Side is the first film to be nominated for best picture after receiving absolutely no best picture precursor attention whatsoever. -With Avatar and District 9, this is the first time two sci-fi films were nominated for best picture. -Up becomes the second animated film nominated for best picture after Beauty and the Beast. -A Serious Man is the third film by the Coen Brothers to be nominated for best picture, and fourth to be nominated for screenplay. -The average box-office between the best picture nominees is higher than that of any group before it (although it's highly skewed by Avatar). -Kathryn Bigelow versus James Cameron might be the first time ever that two people who at one point were married to each other are competing against each other in the same category. -Lee Daniels becomes only the second black man to be nominated for director after John Singleton. -Kathryn Bigelow becomes only the fourth woman to be nominated for director after Lina Wertuller, Jane Campion and Sofia Coppola. -Meryl Streep increases her record to 16 nominations. -Christopher Plummer becomes one of the oldest men to get an Oscar nomination. -Maggie Gyllenhaal is the first actor since as long as I've been watching the Oscars to get an Oscar nomination without picking up any precursor mentions whatsoever. -This is the eighth nomination for two of the nominated costume designers: Colleen Atwood and Sandy Powell. -Transformers makes the thirteenth sound mixing nomination for Greg Russell, who has yet to win, thus making him the man with the second-most Oscar nominations and no win. -Randy Newman's two nominations for song are number 18 and 19 for him. -This is only the second time in the history of the animated film category that it features five nominees. Nomination Totals The Hurt Locker – 9 Avatar – 9 Inglourious Basterds – 8 Up in the Air - 6 Precious - 6 Up – 5 District 9 – 4 Nine – 4 Star Trek - 4 An Education – 3 Crazy Heart – 3 The Young Victoria – 3 The Princess and the Frog – 3 The Blind Side – 2 A Serious Man -2 Invictus – 2 The Last Station – 2 The Messenger – 2 The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 2 Sherlock Holmes – 2 Fantatic Mr. Fox – 2 The White Ribbon – 2 A Single Man -1 Julie and Julia – 1 The Lovely Bones – 1 In the Loop - 1 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 1 Bright Star – 1 Coco Before Chanel - 1 Il Divo - 1 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 1 Paris 36 – 1 Coraline – 1 The Secret of Kells – 1
The Academy award nominees can be seen here. Lots of surprises. I'll post my reactions and anaylsis this afternoon.
Can Avatar beat decades of narrow-minded voters? As we draw closer and closer to this year's Oscars, fans and bloggers alike are becoming increasingly convinced that Avatar will be the one to beat for best picture this year. Sure the film will soon surpass Titanic as the highest grossing film ever, and it has millions of fans worldwide. But as much as I loved the film myself, I must remain skeptical. The Academy has never given best picture to a sci-fi film before, and I remain doubtful that this is the film to break that barrier. Of course, what type of film is needed to break that type of barrier? Nearly every year the Academy has given the best picture award to a drama or dramady set in the present or past in the real world. Fantasies, sci-fis, real comedies, and superhero films are just a few types that the Academy scarcely recognizes. Let's examine a history of films that have tried to break down the best picture bias. In many was Avatar is this decade's Star Wars. In 1977, George Lucas released Star Wars upon the world and it shot to instant fame like no film before or after it. It made hundreds of millions in its months of running. It inspired product lines, sequels, conventions, and forever changed the way films are made due to its breakthrough visual and sound technologies. Few films could be considered as revolutionary as Star Wars was. It was no surprise that this massive hit was Oscar nominated for best picture in '78. But it was a shock to many that it lost the award to Woody Allen's film Annie Hall. How could a film that impacted the way films were made for decades to come, be beaten by a simple but well-written and acted film. Sure Annie Hall was a good film, but does it really deserve the term best picture? Shouldn't best picture go to a film of certain importance? Shouldn't it go to a film that changes the way all other films are made? Apparently not because in the ‘70s the Academy was still fixated on awarding the same type of real-world dramas or dramadies every year. Star Wars failed to break the barrier. History repeated itself in 1982 when Steven Spielberg introduced us to E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial, the tiny wide-faced alien that the world fell in love with. This love was enough to gross the film nearly $400 million making it the biggest film ever. And it seems as though it came closer to satisfying the Academy's criteria of being a real-world drama, if it weren't for that tiny detail that E.T. is from outer space. If the film were rewritten so that E.T. were say, an illegal immigrant from Slovenia, perhaps the Academy would have given the best picture award to the film instead of the grand-scale epic Gandhi. Sure Gandhi was as big-scale as Lawrence of Arabia and told the tale of one of the most important people in history. But it did not capture the hearts and souls of audiences the same way that E.T. did. Once again, the Academy chose tradition over heart. Now let's look at a time when a best picture barrier was broken. I am referring of course to The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. In 2003, this fantasy film by Peter Jackson not only won best picture and director, but nine other awards making it a perfect sweep and tying Titanic and Ben-Hur as the all time biggest Oscar winner. Meanwhile, the Clint Eastwood murder drama Mystic River, the film that more clearly has Oscar written all over it, picks up a mere two acting trophies in its haul. So what caused the Academy to suddenly change from its narrow-minded focus to accepting fantasy films as genuine filmmaking? I believe the answer to be: baby-steps. Before Return of the King, there was The Fellowship of the Ring and The Two Towers, both of which were nominated for best picture and both of which lost just like Star Wars and E.T. before them. But therefore, by the third film, there was more a sense that this film had EARNED its Oscar through the two previous films' nominations. I believe had there been no Fellowship or Two Towers, then Return of the King would have lost to Mystic River. So you could say that Lord of the Rings broke down a best picture barrier for fantasy films, but they had to try three years in a row in order to do it. This brings me to the most recent, and therefore I believe the most relevant example for comparison: The Dark Knight. In 2008, Christopher Nolan's interpretation of the comic book hero soared to $530 million, second only to Titanic. In terms of ticket sales, I'd say Avatar has made about as much as Dark Knight when you factor in price inflation, and the extra cost for the 3D glasses. Throughout '08, people were talking about how Dark Knight was going to be the first superhero film to be Oscar nominated for best picture, as well as director and screenplay. It was after all widely accepted that it was the best superhero film ever, unlikely to ever be surpassed. Alas, on that cold January morning, people which may have included myself broke into tears upon finding out that the film did not get any nominations for picture, director or screenplay. And we were kicked while on the ground upon hearing that those vacancies went to The Reader, a clearly Oscar-baiting film that nobody in the mainstream really liked. This was more proof than ever before that the Academy refuses to recognize mainstream but alternative forms of filmmaking and will only accept their traditionalist styles. This broke my heart, and my refusal to accept Avatar as a serious best picture threat is because I don't want to be hurt again. Though come Tuesday morning, I'm sure we'll see Avatar among the best picture nominees, and probably James Cameron among the directors. Though I wouldn't be so sure it would make the picture list were they still limited to five nominees. I just find it hard to believe that Avatar could win best picture when The Dark Knight, which I consider to be a superior film, couldn't even get nominated. Let's compare the two for a second. What's the reason for Avatar's success? I would say stunning visuals that aid exciting action sequences. That makes it an excellent action film, and like Star Wars it will influence the way films are made for decades. But I wouldn't necessarily call it best picture simply because of its clichéd and obvious storyline. That is at least I wouldn't call it best picture if running against The Dark Knight, since that film was also an excellent action film, but also had a brilliantly written screenplay full of surprises, twists, intense dialogue, moral dilemmas, and most importantly of all: ethos. After seeing Dark Knight, I spent weeks thinking about many of the films implications such as giving into terrorism, mob mentality and giving people faith. Can anybody say that Avatar really made them think? After the movie was over, I spent little more than five minutes thinking about its implications. So even though I thoroughly enjoyed both films, because of its thought-provoking story and subtext I would easily call The Dark Knight more deserving of a best picture title over Avatar. And it is for that reason I doubt Avatar can accomplish what Dark Knight failed to come close to doing. Jaws, Towering Inferno, Beauty and the Beast, the list is endless with films that were among the best in their genre, managed to get best picture nominated, but failed to win due to their lack of satisfying the Academy's need for real-world dramas. Do I think a sci-fi film will one day win best picture? Absolutely, but it will take a different body of the Academy than the one they have now. Though I loved Avatar, and would more or less support a best picture win for it, I just can't flat out see it happening. And I say this so that those predicting an Avatar win as well as picture nominations for Star Trek and The Hangover might take a second look at history and reconsider.
Tuesday 2/2 Oscar Nominations are announced, 8:30 am ET Saturday 2/6 Annie Awards
I finalized my Oscar nomination predictions last night. You can see them all on the individual category pages. The nominations will be announced Tuesday morning at 8:30 am on the East Coast, and can be seen on the E! network. I won't be able to post them right away since I have a real career now, but I will provide analysis in the afternoon. Anyway, here are some general thoughts on my nomination predictions. On Tuesday we will know the outcome of the Oscars' expansion to ten best picture nominees. The original goal was so that more mainstream films like comedies, sci-fis and animated films will be included. Will it work? I think sort of. No doubt Avatar will be nominated, thus becoming are rare sci-fi nominee. District 9 and Up also have good shots, but I wouldn't be too surprised if one or both of them got snubbed. I keep thinking about the Dark Knight snub and seeing the same thing happening. But I say of the ten nominees, those three will be the only "alternative" films nominated. People predicting Star Trek, Fantastic Mr. Fox or The Hangover are really just hoping too much. But as I forsaw months ago, the outcome will be that some lesser quality films that wouldn't normally deserve best picture nominations will still be nominated, in this case Invictus and A Serious Man. Also you'll start hearing a phrase you've never heard before, "Nominated for TWO Academy Awards, including Best Picture!" That will be the weird case for Invictus and A Serious Man. Hurt Locker is easily the frontrunner for best picture. Some still think Avatar can beat it. I'll post an article later explaining why I think that's impossible. The director category is practically set in stone. And as some prothesized months ago, the five films nominated for director will technically be considered the "real" best picture nominees. Some think that in the spirt of more alternative films being nominated for best picture, they might also get nominated for director. But I don't think Neil Blomkamp or Peter Docter have much of a shot. Lead actor is probably the easiest category to predict since every blogger has been unanimous in picking the same five guys. But surprises could still happen. There is still category confusion for Melanie Laurent. Ultimately, I don't think she'll be nominated, but if she is I have no idea which category it would be in. The races I feel safe calling winners for now: Kathryn Bigelow for director, Jeff Bridges for actor, Christoph Waltz for supporting actor, Mo'Nique for supporting actress, Up in the Air for adapted screenplay. If both Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox get nominated for screenplay, it will be the first time two animated films are nominated for screenplay in one year. I'm predicting the same five films for both sound mixing and sound editing. Do I really think they'll match 5/5? No. But I don't know what else to do. People I'm eager to see get their first nomination: Ivan Reitman, Kathryn Bigelow, Colin Firth, Sandra Bullock, Emily Blunt, Stanley Tucci, Christopher Plummer (especially him), Vera Farmiga Predicted Nomination Totals Inglourious Basterds 9 Avatar: 9 The Hurt Locker: 8 District 9: 8 Up in the Air: 7 Precious: 5 Up: 4 Nine: 4 An Education: 3 A Single Man: 3 Fantastic Mr. Fox: 3 Star Trek: 3 The Princess and the Frog: 3 Invictus: 2 A Serious Man: 2 Crazy Heart: 2 The Young Victoria: 2 White Ribbon: 2 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: 2 Julie and Julia: 1 The Blind Side: 1 The Messenger: 1 The Lovely Bones: 1 The Last Station: 1 Me and Orson Welles: 1 500 Days of Summer: 1 Coraline: 1 Coco Before Chanel: 1 The Informant!: 1 2012: 1 Everybody's Fine: 1 The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus: 1 Bright Star: 1 Sherlock Holmes: 1 Ponyo: 1
I had her predicted to win, so I'm not that surprised. But many people were so certain it would be James Cameron (I'm looking at you Tom O'Neil). I don't know why people keep thinking that just because Avatar was monumentally successful that awards groups will accept it. I'm writing an article on my full opinion on this issue which I'll post tomorrow. Anyway, Bigelow's win makes it even more certain that Hurt Locker will win the Oscars for picture and director. Bigelow becomes the first woman to win the DGA, as she will likely become the first woman to win the Oscar.
I have finished making all of my predictions for the Oscar nominations. They can be seen on the individual category pages. I won't change anything between now and when the nominees are announced Tuesday morning. I'm going to get some much needed sleep now, but in the morning I'll write a summary of my thoughts on the nominees.
The nominess for the International Film Music Critics Awards (IFMCA) can be seen here or on the precursor chart. They're useful because they're the closest thing there is to a music guild award.
Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow Alternate: Quentin Tarantino The Directors Guild Awards (DGA) are Saturday night. I predict Kathryn Bigelow to take top honors since this award has gone to the expected Oscar picture and director winner for several years now without any surprises. Since I predict Hurt Locker as the frontrunner in both categories, I figure she's the frontrunner for the DGA. But picking an alternate is tricky. I think Tarantino, Reitman, and Cameron all have an equally good shot. I'll just go with Tarantino since I think it might be the Oscar best picture runner-up.
I haven't updated my predictions for the original song category. But I have spent the last couple of days listening to all of the likely contending songs repeatedly, and I have them ranked in my personal preference on the personal picks page. I have also added links to where you can hear the songs on youtube on the Technical page.
The nominees for the Costume Designers Guild Awards (CDG) are below or on the precursor chart. There is one clear standout omission: Inglourious Basterds! Don't worry, I'm sure Basterds will still get its costumes Oscar-nominated, probably alongside four of the films in the period category below. Fantasy Avatar The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus Star Trek Contemporary 500 Days of Summer Bruno Crazy Heart Precious Up in the Air Period Coco Before Chanel Julie and Julia Nine Sherlock Holmes The Young Victoria
Coming this weekend: my final Oscar nomination predictions.
The Producers Guild Award for best picture of the year went to The Hurt Locker tonight. Up picked up the award for animated film and The Cove picked up the award for documentary. So I got 2/3 correct with the third being my alternate prediction. This ensures that Locker has a strong lead over Avatar or any other film in the Oscar picture race.
Due to certain guilds coming out, bakeoff lists announced, and ineligible films announced, I have updated the predictions in the following categories. These still aren't my final predictions. I'll make those next weekend. Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Foreign-Language Film
Tuesday 1/26 Costume Designers Guild (CDG) Nominations Announced Saturday 1/30 Directors Guild (DGA) Awards My predictions for the Oscar nominations will be final.
Ensemble: Inglourious Basterds Actor: Jeff Bridges Actress: Sandra Bullock!! Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique Stunt Ensemble: Star Trek So here are the winners for the Screen Actors Guild Awards. As expected, Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique won their categories just like every other award so far this year. Assuming they both win the BAFTA award next, they are sure things to win the Oscar. Same goes for Jeff Bridges, whom I didn't predict but who also should have no problem winning the Oscar now. Now I did correctly predict that in either the actor or actress category, the most talented performance would be beated by a film that made a lot more money. I was just wrong in guessing that that event would occur in the actor category rather than the actress category. Sandra Bullock beating Meryl Streep is a bit of a surprise to most, but not so much to me since I knew about the box-office thing with the SAGs. But leading actress now becomes the only acting race where there isn't a clear frontrunner. It's split between Bullock and Meryl Streep. They've both won Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes. Bullock takes the lead for winning the SAG, but Streep will most certainly even it out when she wins the BAFTA award since Bullock isn't even nominated there. This suddenly became a very tough Oscar race to call. And I think that Basterds winning the ensemble award keeps the film in the running for winning the Oscar for best picture. After all, the winner of the SAG ensemble award went on to win best picture at the Oscars the last two years, and SAG was the only precursor to foreshadow the upset pulled by Crash. So I'd say Basterds, Hurt Locker and Avatar all have a shot at winning best picture, as might Up in the Air if it wins something important fast.
Picture: Avatar, alt: The Hurt Locker Animated Film: Up, alt: Fantastic Mr. Fox Documentary: The Cove, alt: Burma VJ The Producers Guild Awards (PGA) are tomorrow night. I am predicting Avatar to win since the guild has shown a tendency to award films that are massively successful. But I could also see Hurt Locker win since they also tend to vote for the presumed picture frontrunner.
All voting members of the Academy must have their nomination ballots submitted to the Academy by 5pm today. Therefore, nothing that occurs after today will have any impact on who gets nominated. This is however the first time in several years that the Golden Globes ceremony occured before the ballot deadline, therefore who won that night could make some people reconsider who to nominate at the Oscars. Like will Robert Downey Jr.'s surprise Globe win and amusing acceptance speech lead to him getting an Oscar actor nomination? Probably not, but maybe it helped a little.
Ensemble: Inglourious Basterds, alt: The Hurt Locker Actor: George Clooney, alt: Jeff Bridges Actress: Meryl Streep, alt: Sandra Bullock Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, alt: Christopher Plummer Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, alt: Anna Kendrick Stunt Ensemble: Transformers, alt: Star Trek The Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) will be tomorrow night and broadcast on TNT at 8pm ET. I will be posting the winners live. My predictions are above. First of all, Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique are sure to win so no need to explain those. I'm fairly certain Basterds will win ensemble since it had the largest cast, and several members had great performances. However, I could see Hurt Locker winning since sometimes the award has gone to films with small casts and only one or two okay performances, if the film is a best picture frontrunner (ie No Country for Old Men or Slumdog Millionaire). And I suppose I'll pick Transformers to win stunt ensemble just because I want to see it win something other than a Teen Choice Award this year. As for actor and actress, they are a little tougher. In my research, I have discovered that the SAG awards are more likely to give awards to actors in films that made a lot of money if the other nominees hadn't made much money. This is because the SAG body is large, and they don't get the luxury of private screenings, so they have to buy tickets at the local theater like the rest of us do. This explains SAG wins for Ian McKellen for Lord of the Rings, Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean, and Ruby Dee for American Gangster, none of whom went on to win the Oscar. Therefore, I have a feeling that George Clooney, whose film Up in the Air has made over $65 million, will beat Jeff Bridges, whose film Crazy Heart has made less than $3 million. I also predict this because Clooney has won several awards in his career, but he has yet to win a SAG award (unless you count the four SAG awards he partially won for being part of the ER ensemble). Likewise, I could easily see Sandra Bullock, whose film The Blind Side has made almost $230 million, beating Meryl Streep, whose film only made $94 million. But I'm still just barely going to give Streep the edge since I believe voters will recognize her performance as far superior.
The nominees for the Motion Picture Sound Editors Awards (MPSE) can be seen here. All those expected to turn up did turn up including Avatar, Hurt Locker and Transformers. Though I'm a little surprised to see the absense of Terminator Salvation.
Review: Crazy Heart The finest male performance of the year spearheads this downbeat wanderer tale that's all but a little too familiar.
I call this film Tender Mercies meets The Wrestler. Actually, come to think of it, it's pretty much just Tender Mercies all over again, which probably explains Robert Duvall's involvement. But then it borrows from Wrestler by showing just how low a has-been star can go no matter how hard they try. Frankly, there's been a lot of movies with this plot formula, and Crazy Heart doesn't exactly stand out in front of the rest. But what I did enjoy was the music. The film features so many great country songs written by T-Bone Burnett and Stephen Bruton, I find it hard to believe that they're all original. And I found Jeff Bridges to give the finest male performance of the year (albeit a weak year) for creating the downbeat character that stumbles over everything he tries to do, then pukes on it. Maggie Gyllenhaal gave yet another fine performance as well as the mother torn between whether to love this dangerous man or not. And I enjoyed the film's ending, one not quite as depressing as other films of this type. Crazy Heart is worth a watch to see some fine performances and entertaining music. But you would probably get the same effect from watching an E! True Hollywood Story. Other than that, it's kind of the same old alcoholic cowboy story we've seen before. But if you haven't seen it before, then perhaps you should take a look at this weary kind of film. Stars: 2.5 (out of 4) Oscar Contention: Actor Jeff Bridges, Supporting Actress Maggie Gyllenhaal, Adapted Screenplay, Song
The nominees for the Cinema Audio Society Awards (CAS) can be seen below or on the precursor chart. I'm still a little surprised to see four sci-fi films nominated, an unusually high amount. I do however, think that all five films are very deserving of this category. And I'm particularly happy to see some guilds still awarding the deserving Transformers, reviews be damned (go Greg Russell). Though I'm betting that when the Oscar nominees are announced, one of the sci-fi films (but certainly not Avatar) might be dropped to make room for the traditional animated film, in this case Up. Avatar District 9 The Hurt Locker Star Trek Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
The nominees for the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards (BAFTA) can be seen here or on the precursor chart. I'll add them to the precursor chart later. Hurt Locker, Avatar, and An Education lead with 8 nominations each. Basterds suffers by only getting five nominations and missing on the picture nom.
The Academy has just released a list of nine films that will proceed in the foreign language film race. See the full press release here. I wouldn't say there were any really big snubs except maybe Baaria from Italy. I'll try to update my predictions in this category by this weekend. Argentina, El Secreto de Sus Ojos Australia, Samson & Delilah Bulgaria, The World Is Big and Salvation Lurks around the Corner France, Un Prophète Germany, The White Ribbon Israel, Ajami Kazakhstan, Kelin The Netherlands, Winter in Wartime Peru, The Milk of Sorrow
Brief Review: (500) Days of Summer In the spirit of Once, we are treated with an independent romantic comedy that doesn't rely on big stars, just honesty and heart.
I compare this film to Once since I liked them both for their simplicity and truthful feelings expressed in the acting. Also because they both have an ending that defies the normal structure of Hollywood rom-coms. Though I was still somewhat disappointed in the ending and the message of “plenty of fish left in the sea” isn't exactly the most uplifting. But I still admire the film for its uniqueness, creativity and fine performances from Gordon-Levitt and Deschanel. Stars: 3 (out of 4) Oscar Contention: Picture, Actor Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Actress Zooey Deschanel, Original Screenplay, Editing
You can see my reaction and analysis to the Golden Globes here or on the sidebar. You can also see the Globe winners on the precursor chart.
The nominees for the Visual Effects Society (VES) Awards can be seen here or on the precursor chart. As you would expect, Avatar leads with 11 nominations, followed by District 9 and 2012 with three each, and Star Trek, Terminator Salvation and Sherlock Holmes with two each. Transformers was also among the nominees for best visual effects overall. As for the Oscar, Avatar is clearly still the frontrunner and nothing else has a shot at winning. District 9 is practically assured a nomination. And I suppose the third spot is a toss up between Star Trek, Transformers and 2012.
Monday 1/18 Visual Effects Society (VES) Nominations Announced Thursday 1/21 Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Nominations Announced British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Nominations Announced Friday 1/22 Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) Nominations Announced Saturday 1/23 Oscar Nomination Ballots are Due Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards Sunday 1/24 Producers Guild (PGA) Awards
My final predictions for the Golden Globe Awards can be seen here or on the sidebar. The show is tomorrow night at 8pm ET on NBC, hosted by Ricky Gervais. I'll be posting the winners live.
The winners of the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards are below. I correctly predicted 19 out of the 24 categories (if you count Meryl Streep's half-win as a win). And my five misses were all in technical categories that they briefly mentioned in the show, so I guess you could say I got all the major categories right. There weren't too many big surprises other than Sandra Bullock's half-win, and Avatar picking up more technical awards than I was expecting. In fact, Avatar won the most awards with 6, but they were all in technical categories, not like picture or director. So I wouldn't necessarily say this helps its odds at winning the best picture Oscar. Hurt Locker maintains its spot as the best picture frontrunner after winning picture and director here. Basterds also did well for winning three awards including original screenplay. The outcome I liked the most was Jeff Bridges' win, something I was predicting but wasn't too sure about. This gives me hope that he will finally win his way overdue Oscar. Christoph Waltz, Mo'Nique and Meryl Streep remain the frontrunners in their categories, but I wonder if this could signal Sandra Bullock closing the gap. The fact that neither of the actress wins went to Carey Mulligan really hurts her chances. Well it was an enjoyable evening and Kristen Chenoweth was a great host. Tomorrow I'll add these winners to the precursor chart and post my final Golden Globe winner predictions. Good night! Picture: The Hurt Locker Director: Kathryn Bigelow Actor: Jeff Bridges! Actress: Meryl Streep AND Sandra Bullock! Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique Original Screenplay: Inglourous Basterds Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air Cinematography: Avatar Art Direction: Avatar Editing: Avatar Costumes: The Young Victoria Makeup: District 9 Visual Effects: Avatar Sound: Avatar Score: Up Song: Crazy Heart Animated Film: Up Documentary: The Cove Foreign Film: Broken Embraces Action Movie: Avatar Comedy: The Hangover Ensemble: Inglourious Basterds Young Actor: Saoirse Ronan
The winners of the Iowa film critics awards can be seen here or on the precursor chart.
Below are my predictions for the Broadcast Film Critics Association (aka Critics Choice) Awards. The show will be on VH1 at 9pm ET on Friday night. I can't say I'm putting a lot of thought into my predictions. By in large, I'm just basing them on the idea that the BFCA prides itself in being a great Oscar predictor, and therefore they tend to give awards to the perceived eventual Oscar winners. I'll be posting the winners live Friday night. Picture: The Hurt Locker, alt: Inglourious Basterds Director: Kathryn Bigelow, alt: Quentin Tarantino Actor: Jeff Bridges, alt: George Clooney Actress: Meryl Streep, alt: Carey Mulligan Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, alt: Stanley Tucci Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, alt: Anna Kendrick Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds, alt: The Hurt Locker Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air, alt: Precious Cinematography: The Hurt Locker, alt: Inglourious Basterds Art Direction: Inglourious Basterds, alt: Avatar Editing: The Hurt Locker, alt: Avatar Costumes: Inglourious Basterds, alt: The Young Victoria Makeup: District 9, alt: Star Trek Visual Effects: Avatar, alt: District 9 Sound: Avatar, alt: The Hurt Locker Score: Up, alt: The Informant Song: Crazy Heart, alt: Nine Animated Film: Up, alt: Fantastic Mr. Fox Documentary: The Cove, alt: Anvil the Story of Anvil Foreign Film: The White Ribbon, alt: Sin Nombre Action Movie: Avatar, alt: District 9 Comedy: The Hangover, alt: 500 Days of Summer Ensemble: Inglourious Basterds, alt: Up in the Air Young Actor: Saoirse Ronan, alt: Max Records
Due to certain guilds coming out, bakeoff lists announced, and ineligible films announced, I have updated the predictions in the following categories. Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Editing, Makeup, Visual Effects, Score
The winners of the Vancouver film critics awards can be seen here or on the precursor chart.
Drama Avatar District 9 The Hurt Locker Star Trek Up in the Air Comedy/Musical 500 Days of Summer The Hangover It's Complicated Julie and Julia A Serious Man Animated Coraline Fantastic Mr. Fox Up The American Cinematic Editors (ACE) nominees are above. Surprised to see these today, and I'm also surprised they finally gave animated films their own category. The big snubs are Inglourious Basterds, Nine and maybe Precious. Because this is one of the precursors that is considered essential to get a nomination in if a film is to win best picture, I'm guessing Basterds and Precious no longer have a shot at winning. But what's more surprising is the continued love for District 9 and Star Trek, just when I thought Avatar was the only sci-fi film that was going to get big love this year. These two might have a shot in the best picture category as well.
District 9 Il Divo The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian The Road Star Trek The Young Victoria The Academy just released the list of seven films eligible for the makeup category. See the full press release here. Snubs include Inglourious Basterds, Terminator Salvation and Harry Potter. And what the heck is Il Divo? Well I think District 9 and Star Trek remain the frontrunners. I'll update this category shortly.
Avatar The Hurt Locker Inglourious Basterds Nine The White Ribbon These are the nominees for this year's American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Award. Not much surprise except maybe with leaving off The Lovely Bones. The inclusion of Nine means that it may not be fading as fast as we thought. Though I'm betting only 4/5 of these at most will be Oscar nominated.
Original 500 Days of Summer Avatar The Hangover The Hurt Locker A Serious Man Adapted Crazy Heart Julie and Julia Precious Star Trek Up in the Air So these are the Writers Guild Award nominees. I got the original category correct 5/5! However, I only got 2/5 on adapted. I don't think anybody saw Star Trek getting nominated. But I don't think it will happen at the Oscars, nor will nominations for Julie and Julia, Crazy Heart or The Hangover. Those films just got lucky because of the ones that were ineligible.
My Most Anticipated Films for Spring  5. The WolfmanWe've been hearing about this project for a while. Benicio Del Toro stars in this remake of the classic horror film. As you would expect, Benicio gets bitten by a wolf and becomes the Wolfman. Horror an murder ensue in the old British world along with costars Anthony Hopkins and Emily Blunt. Though its release date has been pushed forward three times, I don't see anything inherently wrong with the film judging from the trailers. I think it will make a good addition to the spring for its classic horror nature and for the always impressive makeup effects by Rick Baker. The Wolfman hits theaters February 12. Watch the trailer here.  4. Green ZoneAnother delayed film is the latest Greengrass/Damon collaboration. After doing two Jason Bourne movies together, the director and star team up again for this political action thriller about underhanded dealings in the middle east. Damon plays a government investigator trying to get to the bottom of things. I think this film will be big if the duo brings what they brought to the Bourne movies: fast and dynamic action sequences in fascinating locations intermittent with fine dramatic performances. It's odd to see this type of film in the Spring, but I think it will be some intense fun. Green Zone hits theaters March 12. Watch the trailer here.  3. Clash of the Titans Sam Worthington has quickly risen to the A-list thanks to Avatar, now here's his chance for a big follow-up. In this remake of the classic Greek mythology story: Worthington plays Perseus, a warrior who gets thrown into a war between the Gods Zeus (Liam Neeson) and Hades (Ralph Fiennes). The clash is laden with effects-heavy action and mythical dazzle. It also looks like a summer release, but I think it will fit well in the spot where 300 did so well. Sword and sandals films have seen a big resurgence since Gladiator and this is the latest to add to the fine mythological collection. Clash of the Titans hits theaters March 26. Watch the trailer here.  2. Shutter Island I guess after finally winning his Oscar, Scorsese was allowed to make a film that wouldn't be trying to get the award. So here he's making his first thriller since Cape Feare. The story is set on an island asylum where the US Marshal (Leonardo Dicaprio) is investigating the case of a missing patient, and discovers there's something really suspicious about the island. Reminds me a lot of the PS3 game Batman: Arkham Asylum I've been playing a lot lately. Like several films on this list, this film had its release date pushed thus taking it out of Oscar consideration. Though I'm happy to see Marty make a film that isn't necessarily an Oscar film, just a fun thriller that he clearly wanted to make. If it gets the great reviews I'm expecting, I'm sure it will be as fast and intense as any of Scorsese's other pieces. Shutter Island hits theaters February 19. Watch the trailer here.  1. Alice in Wonderland Frequent viewers of this site know I have a weakness for Tim Burton films. The man is insane, but at the same time a genius. No other director can take ordinary scenarios like a suburban neighborhood, a factory owner, or a murdering barber, and make them twice as creepy and mysterious as they were before. Burton's latest piece is an adaptation of the classic Lewis Carroll book about Alice who falls into a rabbit hole and enters the wondrous world of Wonderland. She encounters the Tweedles, the Caterpillar, and the Chesire Cat. Burton regulars Johnny Depp and Helena Bonham Carter are onboard again as the Mad Hatter and the Red Queen respectively. I understand the criticism around most previous adaptations that had Alice essentially just meeting one odd character after another. Burton says this time there's an actual plot, while still staying true to the novel. I'm going to see this film just because it's Burton and everything he touches turns into a swirly, creepy, monochromatic masterpiece. Alice in Wonderland hits theaters March 5. Watch the trailer here. Likely to be disappointments: Everything else, it is Spring after all Undecided: Edge of Darkness, I Love You Philip Morris, A Nightmare on Elm Street, Wall Street 2
Original 500 Days of Summer Avatar The Hangover The Hurt Locker A Serious Man Alternates: Crazy Heart, It's Complicated Adapted The Informant Invictus Precious Up in the Air Where the Wild Things Are Alternates: The Blind Side, Bright Star The Wrtiers Guild Award nominations will be announced tomorrow. My predictions are above. You may notice a lot of good candidates not on the list. That's because the following films were ineligible for one reason or another: Up, Inglourious Basterds, District 9, Fantastic Mr. Fox, An Education, The Road, A Single Man, and In the Loop. So for original, I'm predicting the four remaining most likelys plus The Hangover since they tend to nominate well-reviewed crude comedies like 40 Year Old Virgin. And adapted is the most likely remaining films, which really doesn't leave much at all.
Monday 1/11 Writers Guild Award (WGA) Nominations Announced American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Nominations Announced (sometime in the week) Oscar makeup finalists announced Tuesday 1/2 Association of Cinematic Editors (ACE) Nominations Announced Friday 1/15 Critics Choice Awards Sunday 1/17 Golden Globe Awards
Avatar has a decent shot at winning best picture this year, thus becoming the first sci-fi film to ever win best picture. This was the last sci-fi film to even be nominated for best picture. ANSWER
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