Useful Statistics
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The following statistics are probabilites that I spent hours calculating. They are the probabilities of the given item corresponding to the same item in the Oscars. The format was redesigned in 2009 so that they are organized by Oscar category and they can easily be compared to the Precusor Chart. For example: the DGA numbers mean that about 84% (or about four out of five) of the nominees for the directorial oscar will have been DGA nominated that same year, and there is an 80% chance that the winner of the directorial oscar will have won the DGA for best director. All statistics are based only on the last ten years of history unless otherwise specified. I decided to narrow the data down to just ten years since recent history plays a bigger role that older history. Note I did not update the best picture statistics for film year 2009 because due to the best picture expansion to 10 nominees, there is no easy way to do it, and the statistics are irrelevant now anyways, so the current numbers for best picture only reflect film years 1999-2008. I decided to calculate these because Oscar predictors tend to rely heavily on these precursor awards, when in fact they may not correspond to the Oscars as accurately as one may think. So now you can see which precursor is truly the most accurate at predicting say Best Picture (apparently, it's the Critics Choice Awards). Email me if you have questions about how the numbers work. Last Updated: 3/12/2010 |
Picture
| - | PGA | DGA | SAG |
Golden Globe (drama or comedy) |
Critics Choice | BAFTA | ACE | Match with Oscar Best Director |
| Nomination | .72 | .84 | .68 | .82 | .96 | .68 | .8 | .82 |
| Win | .6 | .7 | .6 | .6 | .8 | .4 | .6 | .7 |
Director
| - | DGA | Golden Globe | Critics Choice | BAFTA | Match with Oscar Best Picture |
| Nomination | .84 | .72 | .689 (9 yrs) | .66 | .84 |
| Win | .8 | .5 | .8 | .4 | .8 |
Actor
| - | SAG |
Golden Globe (drama or comedy) |
Critics Choice | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .82 | .84 | .822 (9 yrs) | .68 |
| Win | .6 | .6 | .8 | .4 |
Actress
| - | SAG |
Golden Globe (drama or comedy) |
Critics Choice | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .88 | .86 | .844 (9 yrs) | .62 |
| Win | .7 | .8 | .6 | .6 |
Supporting Actor
| - | SAG | Golden Globe | Critics Choice | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .78 | .74 | .733 (9 yrs) | .48 |
| Win | .5 | .8 | .5 | .5 |
Supporting Actress
| - | SAG | Golden Globe | Critics Choice | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .76 | .76 | .711 (9 yrs) | .58 |
| Win | .6 | .5 | .5 | .8 |
Original Screenplay
| - | WGA | Golden Globe | Critics Choice | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .58 | .34 | .422 (9 yrs) | .62 |
| Win | .8 | .1 | .4 | .7 |
Adapted Screenplay
| - | WGA | Golden Globe | Critics Choice | BAFTA | Scripter |
| Nomination | .70 | .5 | .467 (9 yrs) | .68 | .60 |
| Win | .7 | .6 | .3 | .6 | .3 |
Animated Film
| - | Annie (9 yrs) | Golden Globe (4 yrs) | Critics Choice (9 yrs) | BAFTA (4 yrs) | PGA (5 yrs) |
| Nomination | .8635 | .7834 | .8411 | .483 | .76 |
| Win | .889 | .75 | .889 | 1 | .8 |
Documentary
| - | Critics Choice |
| Nomination | .325 (8 yrs) |
| Win | .5 |
Foreign-Language Film
| - | Golden Globe | Critics Choice | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .38 | .222 (9 yrs) | .22 |
| Win | .3 | .2 | .1 |
Cinematography
| - | ASC | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .78 | .66 |
| Win | .4 | .3 |
Art Direction
| - | ADG | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .74 | .58 |
| Win | .6 | .3 |
Editing
| - | ACE | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .82 | .60 |
| Win | .9 | .3 |
Costumes
| - | CDG | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .64 | .66 |
| Win | .5 | .3 |
Makeup
| - | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .408 |
| Win | .7 |
Visual Effects
| - | VES (main visual or supporting) (8 yrs) | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .75 | .766 |
| Win | .75 | .825 |
Sound
| - | CAS | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .78 | .50 |
| Win | .4 | .5 |
Sound Editing
| - | MPSE (domestic, foreign or animated) |
| Nomination | .9722 |
| Win | .5 |
Musical Score
| - | IFMCA (6 yrs) | Golden Globe | Critics Choice | BAFTA |
| Nomination | .267 | .48 | .4 (9 yrs) | .44 |
| Win | .333 | .5 | .4 | .4 |
Musical Song
| - | Golden Globe | Critics Choice |
| Nomination | .4383 | .4395 (9 yrs) |
| Win | .3 | .3 |